Context
What if: examining historical crypto returns
“What if I had invested then?” requires both a price source and a defined purchase schedule. This simulator applies hypothetical purchases to actual covered USD daily closes. Results are exchange-specific, rather than an executable trade price or a prediction.
Bitcoin is available as a covered USD scenario: choose a historical date, enter a hypothetical $1,000 purchase and inspect the full path to the latest completed close. A large final gain can conceal deep losses along the way; the result does not assume you would have held through every drawdown.
Ethereum and Solana have different launch, USD-listing and trading histories. Their available exchange candles need not start at network launch. Inspect covered dates instead of treating an early quote from another currency or exchange as a matching USD purchase price.
Strategy
Lump sum vs. monthly DCA: compare the assumptions
The simulator supports two purchase schedules: a lump sum and monthly DCA (dollar-cost averaging). Both are hypothetical and neither guarantees a favorable outcome.
A lump sum exposes all invested money from the first close. That can help in a rising market and hurt if prices fall soon afterward. The outcome depends on the asset, start date, end date and available cash; this tool does not claim a universal historical win rate for crypto lump sums.
A monthly DCA schedule spreads deposits across different dates. A hypothetical $100 monthly purchase buys more units at lower prices and fewer at higher prices. It changes entry timing, but a falling asset can still lose money. Monthly deposits also differ from gradually deploying an already-available lump sum.
Compare schedules that fit the same available cash and risk assumptions. This simulator does not recommend combining strategies or buying market dips. For a separate forward-looking model with three explicit hypothetical growth assumptions, see the recurring purchase calculator.
Risk
Return and risk: the path matters
A high final return tells only part of the story. For a hypothetical example, an 80% drop turns $1,000 into $200; recovering to $1,000 then requires a 400% gain. This arithmetic is not a quoted Bitcoin or Ethereum market observation. Use the displayed covered price path to examine the selected historical period.
A purchase near a local high can remain below its starting value for a long time. Exchange coverage, the selected daily close and omitted transaction costs affect the modeled break-even point. Compare several supported start dates; a favorable hindsight example is not evidence that you could identify the same entry in advance.
The practical limit: market timing cannot be inferred from a finished chart. The simulator shows the value path from the covered daily closes, including drawdowns and flat periods. It cannot reproduce intraday execution, guarantee data for every interval or measure how you would respond to losses.
Use the profit calculator for a separate realized-trade calculation and the US tax calculator for a scoped federal income and capital-gain estimate. A complete tax return also depends on other transactions and facts. Sources reviewed October 5, 2026: Coinbase Exchange: historical candle limits and gaps. Kraken: recent OHLC coverage and unfinished candle. IRS: digital asset transactions and capital gains.
